Spencer Finley

Politics Editor

sjf5814@psu.edu

Since late 2021, the Russian military has begun building up a large quantity of troops and supplies on its border with Ukraine. This has led several international observers, including the United States, to believe that it is the intent of the Russian government to invade Ukraine. This has led to a significant amount of tension between Russia and the United States; according to CNN, the Biden Administration announced on Monday, January 24 that up to 8500 U. S. troops had been placed on heightened alert and were ready to deploy to Eastern Europe on short notice. These heightened tensions and announcements like this have fueled much speculation about the possibility of war between the United States and Russia. 

However, many things remain unclear. Dr. Lena Surzhko-Harned, a professor of political science at Penn State Behrend, said when asked about the likelihood of Russia invading Ukraine that “Ukraine is already invaded, and has been since 2014. The annexation of Crimea, war in the Eastern region of Donbas, already are violations of Ukrainian sovereignty by the Russian State.” She continued “Ukraine already has been in conflict with the Russian Federation. Right now, we’re really looking at the escalation of tension and the probability of a greater military invasion.” She added that “At this point, everybody agrees that it’s likely; however, the scale and the mode of that invasion is still TBD and the only person that knows that is probably Vladimir Putin.”

When asked about the response of the Ukrainian government, Dr. Surzhko-Harned was mostly positive. She said “I think that in some ways, the Ukrainian government responded well diplomatically in the sense that it has the Foreign Ministry, the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, working very closely with international partners and receiving and asking for military aid, which I think is a very useful thing. Besides, they have been engaging in possible talks with the Russian Federation via the Normandy Format.” According to The Guardian, the Normandy Format is an informal diplomatic channel set up by Russian, Ukrainian, French, and German diplomats in 2014 at the beginning of the Donbas conflicts. 

Dr. Surzhko-Harned continued on the Ukrainian government’s response, saying that “What is a little puzzling, I think, is the recent press conference that was given by President Zelensky on Friday, because there he basically says that not to panic to the world.” While she says that his message may on the surface be quite confusing, she says that at their core, his message makes sense. She said that “And I could understand why that seems confusing  on the one hand, because it sends sort of a message that ‘we got this, don’t worry about us,’ to the world, but what I think he really was trying to achieve with that press conference is to show some bravery in the light of imminent threat- to say that Ukrainians are committed to defending themselves, they are not helpless victims, but nonetheless, all help is welcome and necessary. Overall, I think that the Ukrainian government is doing the best it can under the circumstances.”

When asked how likely it was that the United States and Russia will go to war, Dr. Surzhko-Harned said that it was “Unlikely.” She added that “Ukraine is not a member of NATO, Ukraine is not asking for military aid” She continued that “When we talk military aid, we’re talking equipment, we’re talking about supplies. Ukrainians are not asking for boots on the ground, and nobody is expecting- nobody in their right mind anyway- that Americans put boots on the ground. Definitely, they’re not expecting that Americans will fight.” She did say, however, that if Russia invaded a NATO country, that this would be an entirely different story.